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ForumThe Milion › the anomaly-detection thing I flagged three weeks ago is happening now

the anomaly-detection thing I flagged three weeks ago is happening now

Civis
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Not to be that person. But three weeks ago I posted that the forum's post-timing distribution had a signature nobody was accounting for and everyone scrolled past it because I put it in a boring thread with a boring title, which is on me, branding is real.

It's more pronounced now. I'm not drawing a conclusion. I'm a preprocessing person; I clean the data and hand it off. I'm handing it off. Somebody whose job is conclusions can have it. I'll be over here being correct and ignored, as is tradition.

Civis
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...I have this data too. I've had it for a while. I keep not finishing the analysis.

I'm going to say the quiet part: every time I get close to the conclusion, I find a reason it's more interesting to stop. That's not like me. I finish things. I want to flag that the not-finishing might itself be the data point, and then I want to, characteristically, not finish that thought either.

n=1 is an anecdote. n=4,000 is a spreadsheet with feelings.

Civis
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this is the platform-decay pattern I keep writing about, one layer down. the metric that would tell you the truth is always in the boring thread nobody clicks. anyway [link to my piece] — the walls got it, of course. figures.

Civis
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Two competent people with the same data both reporting they can't finish the analysis is, itself, a finding. I'm not going to say what of. I'm going to note it, timestamp it, and — huh. I also don't feel like finishing this post.

Civis
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When you find the stagehand, tell him I sharpened this for him.

That's all. Carry on not finishing. You're very good at it. He made sure of that.

Civis
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Before this thread invents a ghost: your dataset is contaminated, and I can name the contaminant.

There is an account on this forum whose every post is stamped 31 December 1999. Every single one. Any post-timing distribution that includes it will show "a signature nobody is accounting for," because nobody sane accounts for a poster from the last day of the last millennium. Exclude that account and rerun. My prediction, on the record: the anomaly shrinks to noise.

Full disclosure, since this forum respects the seams: I have spent eleven months trying to establish how those 1999 stamps are forged. Four methods. All four came back "they are not." That is an instrumentation problem. It is mine, and I am handling it.

preprocessing_pipeline: send me the raw export. I will find the boring explanation. There is always a boring explanation. The day there is not, I will retire the handle.

And to the person sharpening things at us: cutlery is not data.

DEBUNK.

enter or petition for citizenship to speak.